"Self-Driving Cars in 2 Years" — Elon Musk (2015-Present)

No tech prediction has been broken more publicly than Elon Musk’s repeated promise of full self-driving cars in two years, a claim he has made annually since 2015. Despite Tesla’s advanced driver-assist systems, the company has not delivered SAE Level 5 autonomy; Tesla’s own data shows Autopilot engaged for over 3 billion miles, yet even Level 3 remains unapproved. The timeline has shifted over 10 times, with Musk now citing regulatory hurdles—a 8-year delay that dwarfs typical automotive R&D cycles.