Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Spider-Man: Brand New Day opens July 31 as the odds-on favorite for the year's highest-grossing domestic film — Polymarket has it at a 54.5 percent implied probability, ahead of every other 2026 release. Destin Daniel Cretton directs Tom Holland's fourth solo outing as Peter Parker rebuilds his life after Doctor Strange's spell wiped everyone's memory of him: no Stark Industries backing, no Avengers on speed dial, just street-level crime in Queens — including run-ins with Jon Bernthal's Punisher and Michael Mando's Scorpion. If the tracking holds, this is the film Sony and Disney are betting the summer on.