UK's Predicted Grades and Contextual Admissions

British teacher-predicted grades are systematically biased, with private school students over-predicted and state school students under-predicted, deepening class inequality. Data from the University and College Admissions Service (UCAS) shows that only 39% of predictions were accurate in 2024, yet universities use these flawed estimates as the primary basis for offers. This practice harms state-educated applicants far more than the average admissions criterion, as it exaggerates existing gaps in educational attainment. Outperforming #5 (Donor Preference) in systemic impact, the bias particularly affects low-income students who are 50% less likely to have their predictions met. The system perpetuates a cycle where elite schools rely on inaccurate markers that benefit wealthy families, making it one of the most entrenched controversies in UK admissions.