UK's Predicted Grades and Contextual Admissions

British teacher-predicted grades are systematically biased, with private school students over-predicted and state school students under-predicted, deepening class inequality. Data from the University and College Admissions Service (UCAS) shows that only 39% of predictions were accurate in 2024, yet universities use these flawed estimates as the primary basis for offers. The system perpetuates a cycle where elite schools rely on inaccurate markers that benefit wealthy families, making it one of the most entrenched controversies in UK admissions.