Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio's All Weather portfolio delivered a paltry 4.8% annualized return over the last decade, lagging the simple 60/40 stock-bond mix by 2.3 percentage points per year. Despite his reputation as a market sage, his macro calls—like predicting a U.S. debt crisis in 2020 that never materialized—have been wrong. When you factor in inflation, the All Weather portfolio barely broke even after 2013, exposing the disconnect between Dalio's guru status and real-world results.