Saudi Arabia 2-1 Argentina — Qatar 2022

Saudi Arabia's 2–1 victory over Argentina in Qatar 2022 is the biggest odds upset in World Cup history, with Argentina priced at 1/9 before kick-off. Messi's unbeaten 36-game streak ended as Saudi's high defensive line caught Argentina offside 16 times—four times more than the average match. Saleh Al-Shehri and Salem Al-Dawsari scored in five second-half minutes, turning a 1–0 deficit into a win. This upset is 40% more statistically improbable than #7 Germany vs. South Korea, given Argentina's pre-tournament odds. Argentina had 20 shots but only 3 on target, reflecting Saudi Arabia's disciplined defending.