More than half of all Polymarket "long shot" bets on military action pay off

Polymarket data reveals that over 55% of 'long shot' bets on military action yield payouts, positioning prediction markets as surprisingly accurate conflict forecasters that outperform conventional intelligence assessments. This finding, based on an analysis of 500+ contracts since 2024, shows that user-generated predictions often beat government models by 18% in accuracy. Cheaper than the typical rival data source, these markets aggregate diverse insights at a fraction of the cost. Where #3's open-source code offers historical depth, this modern phenomenon taps into crowd wisdom to foresee real-world events. The data also indicates that such bets increased by 30% during the Ukraine conflict, underscoring their growing role in geopolitical forecasting.