Next El Niño could be tipping point for a hotter climate

A new study warns that the next El Niño could push global temperatures past a critical threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, triggering irreversible climate tipping points such as Amazon rainforest dieback. The research, led by scientists at the Potsdam Institute, calculates a 40% probability that a single strong El Niño event in the next five years will cross this boundary. This risk is twice as high as the typical decadal projection, surpassing even #1's science-policy disruption in its potential for long-term planetary harm. The study explicitly cites a 0.2°C acceleration in warming since 2020, using satellite temperature data.