Soldier won $410K in Polymarket bets on timing of Maduro capture, US alleges

An active-duty soldier allegedly turned $410,000 in Polymarket wagers by nailing the exact day of Nicolás Maduro’s capture — a bet that landed him in federal investigation. Court documents reveal 47 transactions executed over a 72-hour window, with odds shifting from 8-1 to 2-1 after his initial $50,000 deposit. The alleged profits exceed the typical payout for similar political prediction bets by 400%, outpacing #9's case in financial stakes. Polymarket flagged the account after volumes spiked 300% above the normal daily average for Maduro contracts. If convicted, the soldier faces up to 10 years for unauthorized trading and potentially $500,000 in fines. The case marks the first instance where active military personnel are accused of leveraging classified intelligence for decentralized betting markets.