A cryptography engineer's perspective on quantum computing timelines delivers a sober, data-led wake-up call, earning 441 points. The author argues that post-quantum migration should start now, citing a 15–20% probability of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer emerging by 2030—a timeline 5 years shorter than the average estimate from rival analyses in #7 and #8. This concrete probability is backed by a cost estimate of $50 million per logical qubit, making the urgency tangible. The piece is more actionable than the typical quantum overview, emphasizing that waiting a decade would leave systems vulnerable to a 50%+ attack success rate.
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