Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

Access to the most powerful frontier AI will soon be restricted not by capability, but by economic cost and national security controls, locking out all but the wealthiest organizations, according to this essay. It cites projections that training a single model may exceed $1 billion by 2028, a cost 50% higher than the average current estimate. At 115 points, this analysis captures the growing anxiety that AI's future will be oligarchic, making it a more cautionary read than Details of the Daring Airdrop at Tristan Da Cunha's engineering focus.