#10
US Advance Monthly Retail & Food Services Sales (RSAFS)
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Census Bureau hard-dollar check on what US consumers actually spend—reaching $745.0B (+6.3% YoY) in September 2026 despite somber sentiment.
Published mid-month at 8:30 AM ET by the U.S. Census Bureau across roughly 4,800 retail and food-service firms, Advance Monthly Retail Sales is Wall Street’s reality check on whether consumers follow what they say in surveys or what they swipe at checkout.
September 2026 sales hit $745.0B (+0.8% MoM, +6.3% YoY).
About US Advance Monthly Retail & Food Services Sales (RSAFS)
Published mid-month at 8:30 AM ET by the U.S. Census Bureau across roughly 4,800 retail and food-service firms, Advance Monthly Retail Sales is Wall Street’s reality check on whether consumers follow what they say in surveys or what they swipe at checkout. September 2026 sales hit $745.0B (+0.8% MoM, +6.3% YoY). US Advance Monthly Retail & Food Services Sales (RSAFS) rounds out the top ten at #10 right behind Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (#9), acting as the essential hard-register counterweight to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (#4). While 57% of households told Michigan interviewers in November 2026 that elevated prices eroded their living standards, Census MARTS data proved aggregate US shoppers still rang up $745.0B in September 2026 (+0.8% MoM, +6.3% YoY), feeding directly into BEA’s +3.4% Q3 real GDP expansion (#7) via the closely tracked Retail Control Group excluding autos, gas, and building materials. It sits at #10 rather than higher because headline retail figures are reported in nominal dollars (unadjusted for CPI #1) and omit non-food services such as housing, medical care, tuition, and airfare.
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Published mid-month at 8:30 AM ET by the U.S. Census Bureau across roughly 4,800 retail and food-service firms, Advance Monthly Retail Sales is Wall Street’s reality check on whether consumers follow what they say in surveys or what they swipe at checkout.
September 2026 sales hit $745.0B (+0.8% MoM, +6.3% YoY).
Key Benchmarks & Specifications
Publishing Bureau U.S
Census Bureau Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MARTS)
Latest Verified Print
$745.0B in September 2026 (+0.8% MoM, +6.3% YoY), with August revised up from +1.1% to +1.3% MoM
GDP Direct Feed "Control Group" retail sales (excluding autos, gas, building materials, and food services) feeds directly into BEA Goods PCE
Discretionary Barometer Food Services & Drinking Places is the sole services category inside the report, gauging dining-out elasticity
Primary FRED Code RSAFS (Advance Retail & Food Services) released mid-month at
8:30 AM ET
Editorial Strengths & Watchouts
Pros
- Control Group retail sales directly drives real-time Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking models for quarterly GDP (#7)
- Exposes the post-pandemic gap between gloomy consumer surveys (UMCSENT #4) and resilient actual card spending (+6.3% YoY)
- Cleanly breaks out e-commerce (nonstore retailers), auto dealers, restaurants, electronics, and building materials
- Arrives roughly two weeks after month-end, well ahead of BEA’s full Personal Consumption report (#5)
Cons
- Reported in nominal dollars (not adjusted for inflation), so a 0.5% monthly gain can reflect higher gas/food prices rather than higher volume
- Covers predominantly goods plus restaurants (~1/3 of total PCE), omitting healthcare, housing, travel, and tuition services
- Prior-month figures frequently revise by 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points as late merchant responses arrive (e.g., Aug 2026 +1.1% to +1.3%)
Eligibility & Access
- Best for consumer retail/e-commerce equity analysts, credit-card network investors, and GDPNow real-time growth trackers
- Best for macro strategists cross-checking University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (#4) against hard checkout receipts
Key Caveats to Verify
- Gasoline price swings and Prime Day / holiday-calendar shifts distort headline MoM percentages unless stripped down to Control Group
- Nominal strength can fool equity bulls during inflationary bursts when real unit volumes are flat
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