#4
FOMC Federal Funds Target Rate & SEP Dot Plot
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Eight-times-yearly Federal Reserve rate decision, statement, and Chair press conference anchoring global risk-free borrowing costs.
Eight Wednesdays a year at 2:00 PM ET, the Federal Open Market Committee sets the target range for the overnight federal funds rate alongside quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) dot plots. On October 28, 2026, the Committee voted 10–2 to hold the target range at 3.75% to 4.00%, with two hawkish dissents.
About FOMC Federal Funds Target Rate & SEP Dot Plot
Eight Wednesdays a year at 2:00 PM ET, the Federal Open Market Committee sets the target range for the overnight federal funds rate alongside quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) dot plots. On October 28, 2026, the Committee voted 10–2 to hold the target range at 3.75% to 4.00%, with two hawkish dissents. The FOMC Federal Funds Target Rate & SEP Dot Plot secures #4 right behind the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (#3) and ahead of BEA Core PCE (#5) because the FOMC is the formal monetary-policy reaction function responding to CPI (#1), Payrolls (#2), and Michigan inflation expectations (#3). Its October 28, 2026 10–2 vote holding the target range at 3.75%–4.00%—with hawkish dissents from Governors Cook and Hammack citing sticky inflation alongside firm productivity and capital investment—reminded global investors that vote splits, quarterly dot-plot medians, and 2:30 PM ET press-conference remarks reprice equities worldwide in minutes. It ranks #4 rather than top-three only because rate holds and cuts are usually priced into overnight swaps once monthly CPI, payrolls, and sentiment surprises print.
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Finance
Eight Wednesdays a year at 2:00 PM ET, the Federal Open Market Committee sets the target range for the overnight federal funds rate alongside quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) dot plots. On October 28, 2026, the Committee voted 10–2 to hold the target range at 3.75% to 4.00%, with two hawkish dissents.
Key Benchmarks & Specifications
Governing Body
12-voting-member Federal Open Market Committee (7 Board Governors plus 5 Reserve Bank Presidents)
Oct
28, 2026 Target Range Maintained at 3.75% to 4.00% following September 16, 2026 quarter-point hike
Voting Split
10–2 vote in October 2026, with Governors Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of +25 bps
Quarterly Projections March, June, September, and December meetings include
19-participant SEP rate dots and GDP/PCE forecasts
Global Transmission Directly anchors US SOFR, prime lending rates, HKMA base rates via USD/HKD peg, and global dollar funding
Editorial Strengths & Watchouts
Pros
- Sets the literal risk-free discount rate underpinning every global DCF valuation, mortgage spread, and FX carry trade
- 2:30 PM ET Chair press conference Q&A often reverses the initial 2:00 PM algorithmic reaction
- Quarterly SEP dot plots reveal the median terminal-rate and neutral-rate (r-star) distribution across all 19 policymakers
- Direct cross-border transmission to pegged monetary regimes including Hong Kong SAR and GCC central banks
Cons
- Occurs only eight times per year rather than monthly, leaving multi-week stretches governed by data inputs (#1, #2, #4)
- Headline rate moves are frequently 90%+ priced into CME Fed Funds futures beforehand via Fed speeches
- Anonymous SEP dots do not distinguish voting FOMC members from non-voting regional bank presidents
Eligibility & Access
- Best for global asset allocators, fixed-income portfolio managers, commercial banks, and corporate CFOs timing debt issuance
- Best for international borrowers in USD-linked markets such as Hong Kong HIBOR/Prime mortgages and emerging-market sovereign debt
Key Caveats to Verify
- Two-stage volatility between the 2:00 PM redline statement and 2:30 PM press conference whipsaws tight stop-loss orders
- Backward-looking policy lags mean rate changes take 12 to 18 months to filter fully through corporate refinancing walls
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