美國 10 年期與 2 年期國債孳息曲線利差 (T10Y2Y)

About 10Y–2Y US Treasury Yield Curve Spread (T10Y2Y)

Calculated continuously during global bond trading and published daily on FRED (`T10Y2Y`) from U.S. Treasury H.15 constant-maturity yields, the 10-year minus 2-year spread pits long-term growth, fiscal supply, and inflation term premium against near-term Fed policy. Both inversions below 0 bps and rapid bull-steepenings signal major regime shifts. The 10Y–2Y US Treasury Yield Curve Spread (T10Y2Y) secures #8 behind quarterly Real GDP (#7) and ahead of Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (#9) as fixed-income markets’ sharpest continuous recession and monetary-tightness barometer. Unlike scheduled statistical agency releases (#1–#7), T10Y2Y continuously distills CPI surprises, payroll strength, Treasury coupon supply, and FOMC dot-plot expectations into a single live basis-point spread that directly governs bank net-interest margins, commercial loan pricing, and corporate refinancing appetites across Wall Street. Every cycle turn from deep inversion back into positive steepening triggers major equity sector rotations between defensives, money-center banks, and small-cap stocks. It ranks #8 rather than higher because it lacks a discrete embargoed release timestamp and saw its standalone recession lead-time stretched during 2023–2025 by long-duration fixed-rate corporate debt.